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期刊简介

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《安全研究》（Security Studies）收录出书创新性的学术稿件——不管是表面研究、实行指示共享依然两者兼而有之。安全研究包含平方的议题，从核扩散、核威慑、军民关系、策略文化、种族突破、流行病与国度安全、民主政事、酬酢方案到定性与多范例研究的发展。2024年该期刊影响因子为2.464。

本期目次

1

军事效率与海战

Military Effectiveness and Naval Warfare

2

核不使用的盲点：磨真金不怕火

Testing as the Blindspot of Nuclear Nonuse

3

创新政府、松驰与往复：第二次卡拉巴赫往复的案例

Revolutionary Governments， Recklessness， and War: The Case of the Second Karabakh War

4

挟制构建与威慑真确度

Threat Construction and Coercive Credibility

5

逃离瘫痪：随意不合称核升级的策略

Escaping Paralysis: Strategies for Countering Asymmetric Nuclear Escalation

内容选录

军事效率与海战

题目：Military Effectiveness and Naval Warfare

作家：Stephen Biddle，哥伦比亚大学外洋与全球事务讲解、酬酢关系委员会国防政策兼职高等研究员。John Severini，约翰-塞韦里尼现在是乔治敦大学政府学博士生。

选录：军事效果促进了政事学文件的增长。但是，这些文章绝大大量侧重于大陆往复。中国的崛起突显了海战。文件的中枢论断是否适用于海战？咱们通过一个对于 1649 年至 1988 年间国度间水面海战的新数据集来比较海战和陆战形态，从而探讨这一问题。咱们发现，海上和陆地的军事环境迥然相异，这使得海战斥逐对物资愈加敏锐，愈加速速，也愈加单方面，因此两者存在实质分辩。但是，在物资与非物资的互相作用方面也有进犯的雷同之处。这些特质对将来东亚反介入/区域拒止（A2/AD）往复的政策、舟师资源分派中妙技和物资进入的均衡以及军事效率研究齐有进犯影响。

Military effectiveness created a growth in political science literature. However， this work focused overwhelmingly on continental warfare. China’s rise highlights naval warfare. Do the central findings of the literature hold for war at sea? We explore this question by comparing naval and land combat patterns via a new dataset on interstate surface naval battles fought between 1649 and 1988. We find essential differences deriving from the contrasting nature of the sea and land as military environments， which have made naval outcomes more sensitive to materiel， quicker， and more one-sided. There are， however， also important similarities involving material–nonmaterial interactions. These features pose important implications for policy on future anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) warfare in East Asia， the balance of investment in skill and materiel in naval resource allocation， and research on military effectiveness.

核不使用的盲点：磨真金不怕火

题目：Testing as the Blindspot of Nuclear Nonuse

作家：Ruoyu Li， 约翰霍普金斯大学政事学系。

选录：太平洋激进派声称核磨真金不怕火即是核使用，这对外洋关系（IR）学科中的核不使用见解建议了挑战。在随意这一挑战的同期，本文还揭示了联系核磨真金不怕火的学科盲点，即核磨真金不怕火与核使用不符。我以为，斯科特·萨根（Scott Sagan）和肯尼斯·华尔兹（Kenneth N. Waltz）对于核威慑的狡辩以及妮娜·坦南瓦尔德（Nina Tannenwald）的核禁忌框架所体现的对于不使用核刀兵的外洋关系扣问是殖民常识出产的一部分，这种常识出产含糊了从属国东说念主民的政事能动性和东说念主性。本文以好意思国在马绍尔群岛进行的核刀兵磨真金不怕火（1946-58 年）为例，对核磨真金不怕火进行了后殖民方针的从头诠释，从而论证了核磨真金不怕火是核使用的一种边幅，相配是核刀兵的殖民使用。

Pacific activists’ proclamation that nuclear testing is nuclear use poses a challenge to the notion of nuclear nonuse in the discipline of International Relations (IR). While addressing such a challenge， this article reveals a disciplinary blind spot regarding nuclear testing that disqualifies testing from nuclear use. I argue that IR discussions of nuclear nonuse—exemplified by Scott Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz’s debates on nuclear deterrence and Nina Tannenwald’s nuclear taboo framework—are part of the colonial knowledge production that dismisses the political agency and humanity of colonized people. This article then argues that nuclear testing is a form of nuclear use， specifically， the colonial use of nuclear weapons， by developing a postcolonial reinterpretation of nuclear testing in the case of US nuclear weapon tests in the Marshall Islands (1946–58).

创新政府、松驰与往复：第二次卡拉巴赫往复的案例

题目：Revolutionary Governments， Recklessness， and War: The Case of the Second Karabakh War

作家：Arman Grigoryan，利哈伊大学外洋关系系副讲解。

选录：创新政事环境的特质是逆向遴荐的压力。它升迁了最激进、最易发生突破、最乐于冒险的类型，而这些东说念主又栽种经过低，缺少在野指示。他们是平方的反唯物方针者，以为独一付出有余的用功和意志，本质就不错按照他们的意愿来窜改。创新者领有弘远的理念念和救世计议，时常不会容忍谐和和还价还价。对他们来说，要结束这些念念法，任何代价齐不算太高。当创新者接管一个与其他国度发生突破的国度时，这些倾向很可能也会影响他们对突破的措置，并可能带来凄婉性的后果。亚好意思尼亚创新政府的酬酢政策导致了 2020 年第二次卡拉巴赫往复和亚好意思尼亚方面的凄婉性失败。

Revolutionary politics is an environment characterized by pressures for adverse selection. It elevates the most radical， conflict-prone， risk happy types， who in addition are poorly educated and inexperienced in government. They are vulgar anti-materialists who think reality can be bent to their will with sufficient effort and perseverance. Revolutionaries are possessed with grandiose ideas and salvation projects， which typically do not tolerate compromise and bargaining. Nor any cost seems too high to them for the realization of such ideas. When revolutionaries take over in a country that has a conflict with another state， these propensities are likely to affect their management of the conflict as well with potentially catastrophic consequences. The argument is illustrated with the diplomacy of Armenia’s revolutionary government， which led to the Second Karabakh War of 2020 and the Armenian side’s catastrophic defeat.

挟制构建与强制真确度

题目：Threat Construction and Coercive Credibility

作家：Danielle L. Lupton， 科尔盖特大学政事学副讲解。

选录：在外洋危境中，行径体若何发出真确的挟制？传统的学术研究侧重于挟制的布景若何影响真确度，而本文则研究挟制自身的构建若何影响真确度。更具体地说，本文引入了 "挟制事理 "这一见解，并从表面上分析了交流者在传达挟制时所遴荐的解释是若何影响其强制性真确度的。本研究采纳了计议计议探望实验，以细目挟制的具体性和严重性、公开挟制与私东说念主挟制以及挟制事理对真确度感知的影响。本文发现，更精准的挟制被以为更真确，而采纳声誉事理的挟制真确度较低。有极小数凭据标明，公开或暗里发出挟制会影响真确度。本文还发现，受众是国内依然外洋，以及危境诱因的严重经过齐会影响东说念主们对真确度的看法。本研究进一步加深了咱们对塑造强制性真确度的成分以及方案者如安在外洋危境中最有用地传达其快乐的融会。

How do actors issue credible threats during international crises? While scholarship has traditionally focused on how the context of threats influences credibility， this paper considers how the construction of the threat itself affects credibility. More specifically， this paper introduces the concept of threat justification and theorize how the choice of explanation a leader uses in communicating her threats can influence her coercive credibility. This study employs a conjoint design survey experiment to identify the influence of threat specificity and severity， public versus private threats， and threat justification on perceptions of credibility. This paper finds that more precise threats are perceived as more credible， while threats employing reputational justifications are less credible. There is a minimal amount of evidence that the public versus private delivery of a threat influences credibility. This paper also finds that perceptions of credibility are influenced by whether the audience is domestic versus international and by the severity of the instigating crisis trigger. This study furthers our understanding of the factors shaping coercive credibility and how policymakers can most effectively convey their commitments during international crises.

逃离瘫痪：随意不合称核升级的策略

题目：Escaping Paralysis: Strategies for Countering Asymmetric Nuclear Escalation

作家：Even Hellan Larsen， 挪威奥斯陆大学政事学系的博士研究员。

选录：领有核刀兵的国度在与领有核刀兵的敌手进行初级别的突破时常常方寸已乱，因为发怵引起核反击。本文将这种情况称为 "次策略瘫痪"。核刀兵国度试图解脱这种瘫痪情状的遴荐进行了分类：反价值处分策略通过反价值核过失进行威慑；老例暂停策略通过老例反映将进一步升级的背负转嫁给敌手，从而起到威慑作用；毁伤斥逐策略通过在核往复中斥逐毁伤的材干进行威慑；临了，短兵继续策略通过在扫数突破级别上的往复制胜材干来进行威慑。为了解脱次策略瘫痪，苏联和印度在转向老例停顿策略之前，率先依赖于反价值处分。印度未能解脱瘫痪情状，因此运行寻求毁伤斥逐策略。比拟之下，好意思国则奉行短兵继续的策略，以甩掉次策略瘫痪。

States armed with nuclear weapons are often hesitant to engage in low levels of conflict against rivals armed with nuclear weapons for fear of provoking a nuclear response. I refer to this condition as “substrategic paralysis.” I provide a typology of the options for nuclear weapon states trying to escape this paralysis. A countervalue punishment strategy deters through countervalue nuclear retaliation. A conventional pause strategy deters by shifting the burden of further escalation back onto the adversary with a conventional response. A damage limitation strategy deters through the ability to limit damage in a nuclear war. Finally， a tit-for-tat strategy discourages through a war-winning capability at all conflict levels. To escape substrategic paralysis， the Soviet Union and India initially relied on countervalue punishment before moving toward a conventional pause strategy. India’s failure to escape paralysis triggered a search for a damage limitation strategy. In contrast， the United States pursues a tit-for-tat strategy to neutralize substrategic paralysis.

编译 | 柳博文

审校 | 赖永祯

排版 | 赵兴岳

本文源于《安全研究》2024年第3期，本文为公益共享，劳动于科研训导，不代表本平台不雅点。如有温情，接待指正。

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